Post-deregulation load forecasting is no longer seen as an art, practised by a chosen few. Today, more and more companies are recognizing that getting it right can drastically affect their bottom line.
In today's competitive market, there is a clear need for increased precision in demand forecasts. To underestimate consumption requirements could lead to undercapacity, resulting in imbalance penalty payments, the purchase of potentially expensive spot electricity, and other costly measures. To overestimate could lead to the authorization of a plant that may not be needed for several years.
A realistic assessment of demand has assumed ever greater importance, and with the high volatility of electricity prices, it pays to improve the accuracy of your load forecasts.
Accurate demand forecasting is key to survival in the retail energy market:
Power companies are looking to reduce their need for costly, short-term trading by balancing load requirements to better forecast their customers’ demand for electricity. This reduction is only possible if these same power companies develop more effective means of collating customer demand and develop more accurate forecasting techniques. Not all customers fit neatly into a standard load profile, and poor demand forecasting often leads to inefficiency and sometimes costly short-term trading.
Accurate demand profile analysis is important in making sales to new customers. Deals often depend heavily on usage patterns, and the more precise the demand forecast, the easier it is to determine a suitable pricing structure.
Meter readings, typically captured at 5-minute intervals throughout the day for industrial consumers, provide a wealth of actual demand data, but managing, manipulating and analyzing the high volume of interval load data to create load forecasts is no easy task. Traditionally, power companies have stored meter and theoretical load profile data in a variety of unlinked, disparate spreadsheets and database systems, many of which have insufficient capacity for expansion.
SunGard offers a comprehensive solution for load forecasting and analysis with the underlying time-intelligence technology to get the job done:
SunGard offers a single, integrated system for the storage, management, manipulation and analysis of validated load profile data that provides a basis for precise load forecasting and analysis. It not only improves trading efficiency, but equips the load research team with powerful tools to tailor deals accurately to customer requirements. Built using SunGard's leading fame time-series data management technology, our Load Profile Management System is capable of storing potentially hundreds of millions of interval load data and synthetic standard and generic load profiles at the resolution of your choice.
SunGard Data Management Solutions offer its customers a suite of proven solutions with the necessary underlying time intelligence technology that can meet your business requirements:
1-High performance time-series storage and manipulation capabilities;
2-Statistical data validation and correction routines;
3-Open architecture interfaces to existing systems including relational databases, spreadsheets and mathematical tools;
4-Analytical scripting environment with 250 time-series and statistical functions;
5-End-user desktop analysis and charting tools.
source:
http://www.marketdata.sungard.com/energy/load_profile.htm
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